Frank Reich had plenty of memorable moments as a player with the Buffalo Bills, but the current Indianapolis Colts coach will try to pull off a win against his former team when the teams meet in an AFC Wild-Card game on Saturday. Reich led the largest comeback in NFL history when he brought the Bills back from a 35-3 deficit for a 41-38 OT win against the Oilers in the 1992 playoffs. Now, he will turn to veteran quarterback Philip Rivers to engineer an upset for Indianapolis (11-5) in the 2021 NFL Playoffs.
Kickoff is set for 1:05 p.m. ET at Bills Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. William Hill Sportsbook lists Buffalo as a 6.5-point favorite in its latest Colts vs. Bills odds, with the over-under is 51. Before making any Bills vs. Colts picks or NFL predictions.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 23-13 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters the 2021 NFL Playoffs on an incredible 119-77 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFL Pick Watch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Super Wild Card Weekend
- Colts vs. Bills spread: Buffalo -6.5
- Colts vs. Bills over-under: 51
- Colts vs. Bills money line: Indianapolis +255, Buffalo -310
- Colts: RB Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 741 yards and seven TDs over the past six games
- Bills: QB Josh Allen has 15 touchdown passes over the past five games
Why the Bills can cover:
Buffalo is 6-0-1 against the spread in its last seven games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points, and the offense scores more than 30 points per game. The Bills are second in the league in total yards per game (396.4) and Allen is fifth in passing yards with 4,544. The addition of receiver Stefon Diggs during the offseason made a major difference, and he leads the NFL in receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,535).
The Bills have covered five straight games against AFC foes and can turn to the run if needed. Allen has 421 rushing yards, while backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss have combined for 1,168 and six TDs. Buffalo’s defense is third in the league with 26 takeaways, with Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer patrolling the secondary. White has three interceptions and two fumble recoveries, while Poyer has a team-high 124 tackles and two picks.
Why the Colts can cover:
Indianapolis is 15-7 against the spread in its last 22 against teams with a winning record, and quarterback Philip Rivers has been playing a a high level at age 39. He eclipsed 4,000 passing yards for the 12th time in his career and threw 24 touchdowns. Receivers T.Y. Hilton (762 yards, five TDs) and Zach Pascal (629, five) both average more than 13.5 yards per catch, while tight ends Jack Doyle and Trey Burton have combined for 51 catches and six touchdowns.
The biggest boost to the offense has come from rookie running back Jonathan Taylor, who has rushed for 1,169 yards and 11 scores.
The defense allows 332 yards per game (eighth in the NFL) and is powered by a ferocious front led by DeForest Buckner (nine sacks) and disruptive linebacker Darius Leonard (132 tackles).
How to make Colts vs. Bills picks:
SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, with the model suggesting the defenses will make plenty of impact plays. It also says one side of the spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations, and you can only get the pick here.
So who wins Bills vs. Colts on Saturday in the NFL Playoffs 2021? And which side of the spread cashes more than 50 percent of the time?